England. On Tuesday, Jeny and I will board a plane in Mobile and fly to London, England. We will be driven to Oxford. We will be attending the wedding of our oldest granddaughter on Saturday.
Andrea earned her PhD. in sociology from the University of Colorado. She is a post-doctoral researcher at one of the colleges at Oxford University. She is a demographer specializing in health research. She is marrying an economic demographer from Germany.
Jeny has struggled with stamina and mobility. She has worked very hard to be strong and able to make this trip. I am proud of her. Her work will be worth it. I will not be taking a computer and there will be NO BLOG FOR TWO WEEKS.
In addition to the wedding, we will visit the home of C.S. Lewis. A dear friend visited there several years ago. He found the house in disrepair. He got his tools from California. He and his family worked on it for a month at no charge; just one of many times our good friend helped others.
We will partake in wedding activities, but not with the energy of the youngsters. Most of our family will be there, so we should have a great time. We are hopeful we will also see some friends who live in Europe.
Crime. In one of my dialogs, a reader sent me a video of a commentator saying he hates our leaders. The commentator explains he is angry because our leaders, especially in our cities have allowed our cites to be unclean and unsafe. He bemoans the fact that we are so much more unsafe than 1985 when he was growing up.
I took the time to investigate how much worse crime is now than it was in 1985.
Violent crimes per 100,000 people
1985 — 596 2014 — 365 2022 — 368
Murders per 100,000 people
1985 – 8.0 2014 — 4.5 2024 – 6.3
Property crimes per 100,000 people
1985 — 4650 2014 — 2565 2024 – 1954
I found similar trends for all other categories. I was surprised to learn that clearly the crime rate is lower per 100,000 people now than in 1985. Why doesn’t it feel like crime is lower?
There are at least two reasons. First, there is a difference between crime rate and number of crimes. If you lived in a town with a population of 100 people and one murder occurred, the rate would be 1 per 100.
If the town grew to 500 and 3 murders occurred, it would seem like murder has increased, although the rate of murders has decreased to below 1 per 100.
A second very important reason is the frequency effect. Every night on TV we are told about crime. We see videos of crime. We see surveillance cameras recording crime. We are told by politicians that crime is up. We are bombarded and continually shown crime. The frequency effect skews our perception.
As I previously discussed, frequency effects on our perception of the suicide rate verses murder rate. The rate of suicide is much higher than murder, but most people do not believe that because all we see on TV is murder.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/wicked-deeds/201808/suicide-is-bigger-problem-murder
Proportionately we are safer than 1985, we have more people so there are more crimes. Obviously we still need to fight crime. Preemptive programs in homes, schools, churches and synagogues are probably the best investments for crime reduction. Jails and prisons are probably not the best places for reformation.
This and That
Be very careful, with AI and other skills, misinformation is rampant. A picture circulating on the internet purports to show the chief executive of Lowes on CNN saying conservatives should shop at Home Depot. The implication is political because one of the founders of Home Depot supports Donald Trump. Many people believed the misinformation and called for a boycott of Lowes. The information is not true.
PolitiFact | No, Lowe’s CEO did not tell conservatives to ‘take their money to Home Depot’
The best information usually comes from direct observation. That is why I am very interested to see what General McMaster has to say about his time working directly with Donald Trump. His book was released this week.
Good News
Kindness
Man Raises $35,000 In 24 Hours For A Stranger After A Simple Act Of Kindness (sunnyskyz.com)
UPS Driver’s Heroic Act Saves Woman’s Life (sunnyskyz.com)
First Responder
Peace
Back in two weeks
Jerry
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